For both semi-finals this year, we're going to take a quick survey of how the betting market views the chances of each song.
What we'll be doing is simply ranking all the songs by the odds available on Betfair following the rehearsals, from the lowest (i.e. considered most likely to qualify) to the highest.
At time of writing, the odds available on Betfair for the semi 1 songs to qualify are:
1. Sweden (1.03)
2. Armenia (1.07)
3. Azerbaijan (1.14)
4. Portugal (1.16)
5. Australia (1.22)
6. Greece (1.26)
7. Finland (1.28)
8. Moldova (1.37)
9. Cyprus (1.43)
10. Belgium (1.62)
11. Latvia (1.73)
12. Poland (2.08)
13. Georgia (3.4)
14. Slovenia (4.3)
15. Iceland (4.4)
16. Albania (5.7)
17. Montenegro (7.4)
18. Czech Republic (12.5)
This means there are effectively nine songs the market considered 'safe' now, with Belgium and Latvia fighting it out for the last qualification place. Poland are still potentially in with a shout, and the remaining six are long shots for qualification. But if you think one or more of those six is going to make it through (and this writer does, and has a bet placed to prove it), that's where the money is to be made.
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I think Sweden, Portugal and Armenia will form the top 3 of this semi final. The other countries that will definitely qualify are Azerbaijan, Greece, Australia and Finland. I also think Moldova will qualify because it really stands out. I think Belgium will qualify to, but they won't end up higher than 7th place. Latvia, Poland and Cyprus will battle for the 10th spot but I believe Poland has the biggest chance of qualifying due to the Polish diaspora.
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