Tack och adjö

So, before we set back to the calm off-season, here are a few small thanks:

• To the EBU and SVT for providing us with the convenient reporting facilities, all went nicely and smoothly
• To many other fan sites (esc-chat, ESC Kaz, escXtra, escgalaxy, oneurope, eurovision-kiribati and many more) for helping out in such a friendly atmosphere in the press centre
• To the delegations for allowing us to conduct interviews, ask them about hamsters and add their dancers to our hotties blog
• To the people of Malmö
• To Copenhagen Airport for the free wifi and hand luggage trollies. Hope they're still there next year!
• And mostly to all of you, for reading, sharing, liking, disliking and commenting

Over for another year? ORIMLIGT!

ESC final: Where's the value?

If you've been following our betting guides to the Eurovision semi-finals this week, you'll know that it's been more than possible to make some easy money by predicting what's really going to happen, rather than what fans think will happen (hello San Marino!). However, there are always some surprises on the way, too - Israel's non-qualification will have stung the pockets of a lot of punters, for example. So where's the value in the betting market for tonight's grand final?

Firstly, because most normal people equate "ESC" to the Saturday night show, it's worth pointing out that there's far more money in the markets today - and far more interesting sub-markets for us to look at. Let's start with the winner market, though, since that's where most regular punters tend to focus. To say  that Denmark is the hot favourite to win would be a huge understatement. The best available price for Emmelie de Forest's song is 1.79 - that's less than evens in fractional terms. The problem is that most of us who don't think she's a guaranteed winner are none the wiser as to who will win. Norway are currently the second-favourite at 7, while Ukraine have drifted to between 9 and 17.5, depending on who you look at. Useful outsiders, particularly for an each-way bet, could include Germany or Italy (both available for 41) - or, if you think the world is going to go very strange tonight and fall for the elusive charms of Cezar, you can grab Romania for a tasty 101.

The next port of call is the top 4 and top 10 markets. Denmark is basically a write-off in the top 4 market (a best price of 1.12 offers no value at all), so you might want to look at the likes of the late-drawn Greece (4.5), Georgia (5.56) or Italy (5.5) for a better bet. The top 10 market is more potentially rewarding - if all the votes really are concentrated around the likes of Denmark, that opens up the possibility for some surprise countries sneaking into the upper echelons of the scoreboard. A price of 3.1 says that semi-final favourite Ireland will be among them, for example, while the male power vocals (in very different ways!) of Romania and Iceland are both priced at 4.5. Alternatively, if you think a soft and pleasant song like Estonia - effectively alone in its field - could capture enough jury attention to be catapulted into the top 10, that one's available for a very tasty 11.

As Eurovision fans, of course, we're almost as interested in what happens at the other end of the scoreboard. In the last place market, poor old Spain are the clear favourites - a mere 3 is available for them to finish last, and the odds are shortening all the time. Other candidates include Belarus and Lithuania at 11; both countries would seem to have enough allies to score 20-odd points, but that was almost enough for last place in 2011, so if the votes are widely spread then they could still get tangled up at the bottom of the table. Thinking of the light and airy sounds of Switzerland 2011, actually, I'm wondering if Malta at 21 mightn't be a bad outsider for last place - but then I also suspected Gianluca wouldn't qualify, so what do I know?

In the final, there are also regional markets to look at - although some are bigger than others, e.g. following the Balkan collapse in the semi-finals that's left us with just Romania and Greece to choose from! If you suspect Norway will come out as the top Nordic country but you don't want to pin yourself down to a bet on their absolute placing, for example, a price of 4.75 is available at sites such as Ladbrokes and Bwin. (The real outsider in this group is Iceland, coming in at a whopping 41.) Meanwhile, in what's being called the "Western Europe" category - consisting of the Netherlands, Ireland, France, the United Kingdom and Belgium - you can still get a quite decent 2.44 if you think Hologrammatic Anouk will beat off the aforementioned competition. Seems quite feasible - the only one I can realistically see challenging her is Ireland (3.5), although if the Bonnie Tyler fanbase turns out in force, 7 might end up seeming like a quite acceptable price.

While we're on the subject of Bonnie, there's the top big 5 market. Italy leads the way here at a best price of 1.91, and with a late draw and all those Balkan votes floating around, it's hard to disagree with that. However, Germany's Cascada is a big name, and 3.75 for Natalie's dance beats to come out on top is quite an attractive proposition too.

As on Tuesday and Thursday, we finish with the many head-to-heads that are on offer. 2.62 for Greece to beat Azerbaijan seems like an interesting one - and I'm certainly tempted by the 2.1 that's available for Iceland to beat Finland, especially now we've seen their respective positions in the running order. Meanwhile, if you think Ireland's position in the running order is hugely advantageous to them, you can get 2.4 for Ryan Dolan to finish ahead of Anouk from the Netherlands.

You can use the wonderful Oddschecker to investigate all of these markets and more for yourself. And whatever you bet on, I hope you have a great time tonight and end up happier, richer, or ideally both!

Eurovision Day is here, ZOMGZ!!

Two weeks in Malmö are drawing to an end, and we've seen lots of rehearsals, mad cats, cows in the arena (or heard them, at least), worked our way through quite a substantial amount of wine, free or otherwise - and now we're nearly there. Tonight at 21:00 CET the Eurovision Song Contest 2013 will begin, and not too many minutes into tomorrow (depending on whether they've cut anything from the looong intro or the looooonger interval act) we'll know Loreen's successor.

I've been twisting my head forwards and backwards (and a little to the side, like in my accreditation photo) to try to figure out who it's going to be. The obvious answer is of course "Denmark", if polls and bookmakers are to be believed. But then again, so we thought about France in 2011 - could it be a case of the same kind of "accelerating favourite", that more and more people gets behind simply because they're starting to get a bit clueless? I don't really think the two are comparable, for what it's worth, and I doubt we'll see Emmelie de Forest crash to the same extent as Amaury Vassili did two years ago. I have been doubting her chances to actually win all season, though, and if nothing else, I want to stick with my prediction that she won't, just to make sure I'm not just swooped up in the majority view. A top 3 finish seems very likely, though, a prediction supported by the Danish song's success in various iTunes charts across Europe.

But then we need someone else to win, don't we...? GARGH. I've had Germany as a front runner big parts of the season, and Cascada is selling it extremely well on stage, so there's little reason to change that thought based on the rehearsals we've seen. However, I think it's safe to say its main audience is the televoters, and I do fear it might lose out on a few votes by being performed as #11. It's not a disastrous draw, but almost all of the other potential vote-grabbers have been luckier, and are to be find towards the end of the running order. Or could it actually hurt the others to be chucked together, and make Germany stand out more?

The delicious Fərid Məmmədov from Azerbaijan is hard to overlook, even though he is very short. His face is not a work of classic beauty, but with those arms, several upside-down e's in his name and that smouldering look in his eyes, I'm sold as hell. The strong, powerful song obviously helps too, and I think he's heading for a safe top 5 result. Yet, I can't see it winning, for some reason.

So we're left with Norway's Margaret Berger... I've loved this from about the first time I heard it, back in January, and it sure hasn't gotten any worse during rehearsals. She keeps nailing it, and is getting more smiley and charismatic by each run-through. I've been trying my best to avoid getting carried away and overrate its chances, but after convincing myself I won't get on the bandwagon and predict Denmark (even though I know there's a fair chance it's going to happen), this is by far the best package I'm left with - a great draw and a great performance, and a song that should appeal to televoters and juries alike. Boy, am I in for a disappointment tonight or what... :-o

So with that covered, this is how I think the complete scoreboard will look at the end of the evening. Am I wrong? Am I right? Comment or ridicule below!


1: NORWAY - Iiiiihh!
2: DENMARK - If it's not Norway, it's this. A good winner, but would be a bit anticlimactic...
3: AZERBAIJAN - Omnomnom
4: GERMANY - Hoping the juries went for it last night, and that she shines like we know she's capable of on screen tonight.
5: GREECE - May well be top 3 in the televote, and even I have started to mind it less by now... Is it related to hottie lead singer being very nice and touchy when we had our picture taken...?
6: UKRAINE - Useless, shouty mess, but god what a great mess it is.
7: NETHERLANDS - I really hope this doesn't fail...
8: ITALY - Had started to believe in a top 5 finish, but that performance in the jury final last night made me wonder. It should theoretically be his main audience after all, more so than the televote.
9: RUSSIA - Been solid all week, and works well, but there's little to actually love here.
10: GEORGIA - Similar to Russia - just a bit less solid the last few days.
11: ICELAND - Still think this is getting Norway's douze.
12: MOLDOVA - Would've been interesting to have this on much later, it does seem to disappear a bit when on as #3. A great little (well, tall) thing, though - the one that rose from rehearsals for me.
13: IRELAND - Should manage a decent result, but don't think it'll trouble any end of the scoreboard.
14: SWEDEN - An odd home entry, really, quite a different song from the rest. He's singing it well, though, and even if it might disappear a little for the televoters, I expect it got some jury support last night.
15: HUNGARY - Speaking of different... Love this to bits, and it stands out a mile.
16: ROMANIA - Yikes.
17: MALTA - Sweet and endearing in a goofy way, with his shy grin and walking with his feet turned inwards. Might get lost tonight, but should have a certain audience.
18: ARMENIA - Competent and solid, but probably won't have a massive audience. And I'm guessing the juries in countries that normally have them high in their televote may be a little extra careful to vote it down, unfair or not.
19: LITHUANIA - A great little song, this, and the performance last night was the best I've seen it, with a cheeky charm, and Andrius clearly enjoying himself.
20: FINLAND - This is as solid as ever, but I'm expecting it to get a bit lost when on as #4 - in addition to having a rather limited audience, region-wise.
21: BELGIUM - Competent enough, but forgotten a few songs after.
22: BELARUS - Well, who's gonna vote for this then? A few good neighbours and friends, and that'll be just about it, I would think. Still, CHA CHA HEY and CLINK * CLINK * CLINK
23: ESTONIA - Sweet and lovely, but rather doomed, I fear.
24: FRANCE - Not as good as it wants to be, and even if it were, would probably have a limited voting demographic. Will they repeat last year's televote zero? I guess it's technically not possible with the new voting system (as we won't have a 'televote 1-12'), but yaknowwhatimean.
25: UNITED KINGDOM - Nice and proper, if a little dull. 'Nice and proper, if a little dull' doesn't get you votes at Eurovision.
26: SPAIN - Making the most of what it is, but it still is what it is, sadly. Could we get our first zero in the final since the introduction of semi finals?


Good luck to all of you tonight!! xx

Malmö prepares you for every result

This befuddled car has been parking in the Triangeln area of Malmö is as clueless as we are, but at least it admits it.

I'd head plenty of warnings about Malmö before arriving here. "It's a shithole", "a ghetto", "stay in Copenhagen/Lund/Hamburg or regret it", etc. etc.

I've witnessed none of this. No, I haven't received any freebies to say this (except maybe some fika and lots of tap water) - but Malmö is actually a really nice place! Here are some reasons:

• People are very friendly, and not in the annoying way. That goes for both random people at the street and Eurovision staff. The security people were always apologetic when they asked me to empty my bottle. And cars always stop for me when I approach the road (that felt weird - crossing a road in Stockholm, or back home for that matter takes forever).
• It's a tasty city. You can get food from various cuisines for quite cheap (especially Middle Eastern) next to the yumsy Swedish pastries.
• The trains are purple and are called Pågatåg. I want to live in them.
• I felt very safe - any time of day or night - even in the neighbourhood that has some kind of reputation for not being so.
• It was just the right size for Eurovision - and it was everywhere. The random supermarkets playing the official CD, the churches advocating schlager (what?) and the EuroCafé blasting out its music to much of the city. EuroCafé is the best in years, too!
• Most importantly, there's a lot of hot people in here (thanks, Bosnian immigration?)

Enjoy tonight, we know we will!

Since everyone else is categorising...

...I'll do the same. Here's a guess as to how things might pan out tomorrow night - some of it is playing the percentages and the logic game, then there's a few speculative punts in there too. See what you think!

In no particular order within each category...

1st-5th: Denmark, Greece, Italy, Azerbaijan, Iceland
6th-10th: Germany, Russia, Georgia, Romania, Moldova
11th-15th: Ukraine, Estonia, Netherlands, Hungary, Norway
16th-20th: Sweden, Finland, Malta, Armenia, Ireland
21st-26th: France, Lithuania, Belgium, Spain, Belarus, United Kingdom

Jury Final - live blog (part 2)

We are back after miss Woodruff, and Your Fishy Fishyness is at the ready!

NETHERLANDS - Not much new to report about Anouk - still steady, professional and lovely. Comes across very different and strong, but I do think it would benefit even more by being after another song rather than a break.

Predictions:
Sild: 6th-10th, Sam: 6th-10th, Yair: 5th-10th

ROMANIA - And the contrast couldn't be greater... Which I think helps both Romania and Netherlands, actually. I'm glad Cezar is here, as much as I hate it, as it makes for great Saturday night tv. Absolutely no idea what the juries and televoters will make of this, though!

Predictions:
Sild: 15th-20th, Sam: 13th-18th ,Yair: 12th-17th

UNITED KINGDOM - Aww, bless her, showing off her nice little mansion by the sea and all in her postcard. On paper, this should benefit a lot from being after Romania, as a normal song after the mad circus act, but it somehow doesn't quite work. That said, maybe it'd be even worse after something else...? She comes across less as an old rocker today, and more, well, old woman, which is a shame. Steady vocals and a good enough performance, though - and a massive applause in the press centre - are we in the British section...?

Predictions:
Sild: 17th-24th, Sam: 25th, Yair: 12th-17th

SWEDEN - Some nice eye contact in the build-up to the first YOOUUAUAUAOO here - the very boy-next-door and sincere-looking Robin is looking straight into the camera and connecting very well. Nothing wrong with his vocals today, and the random dancing isn't looking as useless anymore either - am I just getting used to it? Can't see this troubling the upper part of the scoreboard, but it won't be because of the performance.

Predictions:
Sild: 9th-17th, Sam: 8th-12th, Yair: 9th-13th

HUNGARY - The guitarist is rocking it as always, bouncing about and smiling - I think this rubs off nicely on ByeAlex himself actually, by somehow proving that his introvert indifference isn't actual indifference, they are actually enjoying this, even if they aren't going all Solayoh about it. Hopinghopinghoping this will do well, but fear it might get a little lost...

Predictions:
Sild: 10th-20th, Sam: 10th-20th, Yair: 10th-20th

DENMARK - Well, what is there left to say... I still can't see why it should be head over heels above the rest, but it clearly is a strong entry. She's very charismatic and eye-sparkling in parts of this, whereas she looks a bit, hmm, calculated (calculating?) in others. Is she getting bored of it...?

Predictions:
Sild: top 5, Sam: top 3, Yair: 1st-8th

ICELAND - One thing this entry benefits from is that it fits with the impressions (wrong or right) people have of Iceland - a blonde viking, slightly Celtic-sounding, dark, atmospheric... Makes it seem more genuine, somehow. The fact it's performed flawlessly with great camerawork obviously helps it too...

Predictions:
Sild: 9th-16th, Sam: 10th-15th, Yair: 5th-11th

AZERBAIJAN - He managed to find the camera in the second shot - yay! God, the eyes... Other than that, he looks a bit sweaty today - has he been out running again? I can't see this winning all of Europe over, but it's destined to do very well. The massive tail of red woman doesn't quite work when she's getting towards the centre of the stage, as the end of it is still on the catwalk - it ends up hanging over the audience in the front. Who gets a peek under her dress?

Predictions:
Sild: 2nd-6th - Sam: 3rd-5th, Yair: 3rd-5th

GREECE - Nothing new here - solid as always, even if not my thing at all - well, apart from the lead singer, that is. Bound to do very well in the televote, especially from this spot, but I think the juries will vote it down somewhat.

Predictions:
Sild: 7th-12th, Sam: 3rd-7th, Yair: 3rd-7th

UKRAINE - Ooops, giant not quite getting his steps in sync with the trembling beat this time! It does look far less ridiculous than it did it first, though. Zlata is very eager to show off her butterfly ring, there's lots of flaring about with her hand, along with the wriggling on top of her little island. She's in great voice, and there's little reason why the juries shouldn't vote for this. Got a massive cheer in the press centre too - are we in the Ukrainian section too...?

Predictions:
Sild: 5th-8th, Sam: 8th-12th, Yair: 7th-12th

ITALY - Marco is still in turqoise dress with a matching tie, starting off with a slightly weird-looking posture and drunken eyes in the close-ups. Probably meant to be 'emotional', but comes across more like dizziness right now. He also appears to be groping his crotch as if he really needs a wee - you should've gone before you went on stage, Marco! There's little wrong with this vocally, and he should do well with the juries based on this performance - he also managed to melt Yami completely! I do have my doubts about the televoting appeal, though... Hmmm.

Predictions:
Sild: 4th-15th, Sam: 4th-9th, Yair: 2nd-7th

NORWAY - We all know what we're getting here, and Margaret is indeed delivering - no issues visually or vocally. I'm really struggling to avoid getting my hopes up for this one...

Sild: top 5, Sam: top 5, Yair: 6th-11th

GEORGIA - "I just rally hate her face" says Sam from my right. And I don't really disagree. Good thing there seems to be lots of long camera shots, then. Good reaction in the press centre, but still leaves me quite cold.

Predictions:
Sild: 9th-12th, Sam: 8th-12th, Yair: 7th-12th

IRELAND - I think this really works as the last song - no winner, but good enough, and interesting enough to watch (hi dancer boys!) to keep people in front of the tv until the end, rather than head for refills or wees. He's singing it like he's done most of the time - with some crack-ups, but perfectly adequate for what it is.

Predictions:
Sild: 8th-15th, Sam: 13th-20th, Yair: 9th-16th

And there you have it! A very interesting draw, actually, seeing them in sequence like this - for all I still think the new way of doing it is unnecessary and stupid, they way it's done here does make each song (at least most of them) shine as much as they possibly can, simply by being after something that's a bit different.

I'll do a prediction of the full result tomorrow morning (ish), so watch this space. Meanwhile, leave us your views, your recipes for waffles or your phone numbers if you're hot in the comment field below - we'll hit the wine!

Jury Final - live blog (Part 1)

Good evening from the press centre in Malmö. Sild, Yair and I are here to blog the jury final, where half of the votes for tomorrow's contest will be cast. That means its important for the acts to give their best - especially for those who will be hoping to appeal to the juries in particular (we're looking at you Iceland).

We'll blog our thoughts on each song, and all three of us will give a prediction on each song's chances.

As we saw earlier, while Benny and Björn and Avicii's song plays, each of the acts walks on to the stage with the flag bearer of their country, just like the Olympics, except with more difficulty walking down steps (so more like the Paralympics in that regard, one could say).

Petra Mede gets a huge round of applause at the beginning, despite a horrible hot pink dress. Her script and delivery are much tighter this evening, even if she is referring to a prompt card for much of the introduction. 44 countries watching this year? So that's the 39 competing, Australia and...? All in all, it's a long intro - it's nearly 14 minutes into the show before we make it to the first postcard.

Incidentally, it's good to see the hall so full for a jury final!

FRANCE - arty shots are the order of the day, almost like in 2008. I'm not changing my opinion much from earlier - it's a safe, solid opener, but not one to challenge the scoreboard. Amandine will probably be relying on the juries for most of her votes, and accordingly is giving a much better performance than earlier - but even so, I'm not sure she really hits the notes with all the potential she could.

Predictions:
Sam: 16th-20th, Sild: bottom 5, Yair: 19th-25th

LITHUANIA - an enthusiastic crowd clapping along, and Andrius really is getting sexier with each performance. Though what will the juries think to the little pokey-out tongue he's giving them? This is a song that really has improved throughout rehearsals, and certainly deserves to be in this final. A good performance with genuine charm - not just eyebrows.

Predictions:
Sam: 17th-22nd, Sild: 15th-20th, Yair: 15th-19th

MOLDOVA - Hi Pasha and Pasha's arms! And hi dancers' arms too! Aliona is back to the swoopy-to-the-side hair for tonight. Despite what Martin said earlier, I'm not sure this is a very good draw for this song - it really benefited from standing out near the end in the semi-final, and I think it risks being forgotten here. And possibly the weakest she's performed it all week too - sounding not quite on top of everything, voice cracking very slightly on the biggest notes. Let's hope the juries didn't mind.

Predictions:
Sam: 13th-16th, Sild: 9th-14th, Yair: 10th-15th

FINLAND - tonight isn't really Krista's night - the juries aren't her key audience. It's a good performance as always though, both vocally and visually: this woman really does have so much personality! And it's certainly one that will get the audiences talking, but I do wonder if it's the kind of song that people enjoy, talk about... but don't actually vote for. Which is a shame, as it would actually be a pretty decent winner for the contest - punchy, contemporary and a social media genius.

Predictions:
Sam: 15th-20th, Sild: 18th-23rd, Yair: 12th-17th

SPAIN - a different yellow dress with horrible gold blingy jewelry on the shoulders and what looks like a stain on one of her boobs. We always said that this risked being a televoting nul points, but should pick up enough points from the juries to keep it off the bottom. I'd changed my mind earlier this week, but the first minute of the performance was enough to make me worry that we could be seeing our first overall jury/televote nul. It got better but... I worry. Notably, the last line of the song is now in English.

Predictions:
Sam: last, Sild: bottom 5, Yair: bottom 5

BELGIUM - uff, a nervy and pitchy start. It got a lot better, and this is just the same as it's always been. Roberto is a combination of terrified and/or overly expressive and he's wearing very pink lipstick tonight. Oh, and the last note was completely off, very croaky. But he seemed to like it, we even got smiles at the end!

Predictions:
Sam: bottom 5, Sild: 19th-24th, Yair: 15th-22nd

ESTONIA - this is actually a lovely draw for Estonia, after the loudness of Belgium and Finland and the not-very-good-ness of Spain. Birgit sings beautifully as ever, and is incredibly expressive without taking it over the top. I'd like to think this could surprise, and the performance tonight won't hurt that in the slightest.

Predictions:
Sam: 13th-19th, Sild: 17th-25th, Yair: 19th-25th

BELARUS - "Why do they have a monkey on a disco ball in the postcard?" wonders Sild. Good question. A good performance from Alonya, probably her best all week actually, both vocally and in terms of not being so wooden on stage. Everyone's back in their costumes from the semi-final, arms out and all. A strong performance, and it's one of the few songs fishing in its pool - could do well.

Predictions:
Sam: 9th-13th, Sild: 18th-23rd, 18th-25th

MALTA - smiley smiley Gianluca is just loving being there, and it's really very endearing. I wonder how the juries will take this - it's either very arty and genuine, or it might be a bit amateur. But they're the questions we've been asking all season. Gianluca is increasingly falling into the habit of chopping his phrases too early, probably because of breathing issues, but it makes the song sound a little rushed. He's back at the bench very late again after lots of high-fives - perhaps a deliberate decision?

Predictions:
Sam: 18th-22nd, Sild: 12th-18th, 12th-17th

RUSSIA - if the juries are going for a big vocal, here it is. Dina hasn't put a foot wrong all week, and the five singers on stage really do create a huge wall of sound. As I mentioned earlier, Dina is starting to get to grips with emoting the song too - she does look like she means it. And once again the audience didn't bat around the stupid balls the throw into the audience. Crappy idea. And the lights on the wristbands looks far too calculated, with far too many shots of them, to be as effective as the Russians were probably hoping.

Predictions:
Sam: 6th-10th, Sild, 8th-13th, 6th-11th

GERMANY - the sparkly heels are back! There's a great shot during the middle 8 (we are glo-o-o-o-o-o) where the camera soars from behind Natalie over a celebratory audience, which is very effective, as are the shots where she's surrounded by flags on the catwalk. I'm not sure she completely nailed it tonight, but her big market is tomorrow.

Predictions:
Sam: 6th-10th, Sild: top 5, Yair: top 5

ARMENIA - some unfortunate shots of a crowd who really don't care here. Another professional performance from a very professional act it remains to be seen what the juries think though.

Predictions:
Sam: 12th-16th, Sild: 14th-20th, Yair: 10th-17th,

Hm, interesting, we went into the postcard for Netherlands, leading us to assume they'd moved the break back to between Songs 13 and 14. But no, the postcard suddenly cut out and we're back to Petra introducing Lynda Woodruff. Lots of laughs in the press centre for the EBU spokesperson's tour around Stockholm.

And NOW it's time for Netherlands, and I will hand over to Sild for the second half of this rehearsal!